Formulation of Alternative Projections
Based on these assumptions, a series of six projections were chosen, as
summarized in the tables 2.16 and 2.17.
Table 2.16 Distribution of projections by assumption on TFR and net migration balance
| Assumption Concerning fertility |
Assumptions On
Net annual
immigration | Sharp decline
6.19 to 3.1 | Moderate decline
6.19 to 4.13 | Constant
6.19 |
Net Annual +9 per
1000 | ---- | projection 5 | Projection 6
Upper Limit |
| - 9 per 1000 | Projection 1
Lower Limit | Projection 3 | ---- |
| 0 per 1000 | Projection 2 | Projection 4 | ---- |
Table 2.17 Assumptions of projections 1 through 6.
| Projection Number |
| Pr 1 | Pr 2 | Pr 3 | Pr 4 | Pr 5 | Pr 6 |
| Assumptions |
Base
population
in 1000 | Lower Limit | | | | | Upper Limit |
| 2117.4 | 2117.4 | 2117.4 | 2117.4 | 2117.4 | 2117.4 |
| Fertility |
| 1993-1997 | 6.19 | 6.19 | 6.19 | 6.19 | 6.19 | 6.19 |
| 1998-2002 | 5.16 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 6.19 | 6.19 |
| 2003-2007 | 4.13 | 4.81 | 4.81 | 4.81 | 4.81 | 6.19 |
| 2008-2012 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 4.13 | 4.13 | 4.13 | 6.19 |
| IMR (M/F) |
| 1993-1997 | 40/45 | 40/45 | 40/45 | 40/45 | 40/45 | 40/45 |
| 1998-2002 | 32/35 | 32/35 | 32/35 | 32/35 | 32/35 | 32/35 |
| 2003-2007 | 25/27 | 25/27 | 25/27 | 25/27 | 25/27 | 25/27 |
| 2008-2012 | 20/22 | 20/22 | 20/22 | 20/22 | 20/22 | 20/22 |
| Net Annual immigration per 1000 |
| 1993-1997 | -9 | 0 | -9 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 1998-2002 | -9 | 0 | -9 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2003-2007 | -9 | 0 | -9 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2008-2012 | -9 | 0 | -9 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
|
