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Ayale-com.435 net.math utzoo!decvax!yale-com!naunton Sat Apr 24 15:29:06 1982 Newcombe's Paradox - the last word.

Assume that the computer is 100% accurate: it knows whether you are going to take box B, or boxes A and B.

Think about this for a few seconds. Now, when you enter the room, you MUST make the choice that you would have made last week. Notice that Willie X-Ray violates the basic premises of the paradox: since the computer does not know about him, and his effect on you, it will not be 100% accurate.

So which box do you take? If you take box B alone, the computer knew you were going to just take B, and dumped the $1000000 there. If you take A and B, the computer knew that you were going to do that, and it put nothing in box B. Therefore, you should take box B.

Now if we reduce the computer's accuracy to 99.9%, nothing changes, except that the one in a thousand "B only taker" gets shafted, and the one in a thousand "A and B taker" gets lucky.

- Mikey (yale-comix!naunton)

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